Target and touch totals are important, but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
Advertisement
Snap counts and depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are way more valuable than RB carries) are also important but generally will not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.
Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week but all the weeks of the season will be archived so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also note as the season progresses that I gave great thought in doing these stats weekly and not for the season. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats just smoothes everything out to a more meaningless middle. Remember, as our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
Touches
This is the final “Market Share Report” of the year. You can ask me questions on Twitter @michaelsalfino as you advance through your postseason. Thanks for reading, and happy holidays! Now on to the show…
Joe Mixon is No. 2, with the Bengals now basically running their offense through their RBs and focusing on the screen game in the offense, which you have to expect will eventually have diminishing returns. In Week 14, 62% of touches were to the RBs (Chase Brown was 32nd).
In Week 14, Raheem Mostert was the running RB and De’Von Achane the receiving RB. Mostert has 16 rushing TDs (and 18 overall), leading the league in both categories. He had two against the Jets on Black Friday and the Jets have given up only six rushing TDs all year (they’re Miami’s Week 15 opponent).
Kenneth Walker is in a pretty even timeshare now with Zach Charbonnet (21.8% to 19.3%), health permitting. (Eagles in Week 15, now an easy defensive mark.)
The Lions have to go back to a Bengals-style attack where the backs get nearly 60% of the touches. It was 43% in Week 14. The Lions face the Broncos in Week 15, in Detroit. Expect them to try to go back to being a power team and to take the ball out of Jared Goff’s hands somewhat.
Advertisement
Keaton Mitchell was No. 1 on the Ravens but 41st overall and doesn’t have the goal line, so he’s not generally playable. Their Week 15 opponent, Jacksonville, is also a pass-funnel team. This also bodes poorly for Gus Edwards (53rd).
Targets
Chris Godwin’s market share went under the radar because the Bucs were so unproductive in the passing game. He needed Mike Evans to be pretty much invisible to get it. Evans checked in at No. 40 on the list. Basically the duo flipped places. I can’t see that happening again. Tampa Bay is at Green Bay in Week 15. The Packers have allowed a lot of big plays, which probably portends a big day for Evans.
Wan’Dale Robinson is a guy I hated drafting given his lack of size and the window with his ACL injury. There’s not a lot of volume in the Giants passing game but he was the only receiver who charted for them in Week 14, which makes him playable if he’s on waivers and you’re down someone for injury reasons.
Amari Cooper is definitely a Top 20 WR with Joe Flacco at the helm. He was 10th in market share and would have also been around there in Week 13 if he had not gotten concussed.
Ezekiel Elliott finishing 12th in target share (he was No. 1 in touch share) is crazy but probably predictive of Week 15 (Chiefs will be the opponent).
Zay Jones was the No. 1 Jacksonville receiver in our model and obviously could lead the team in market share in Week 15. Jones is only 29% rostered — I would rank him over Robinson if you need someone off waivers even against a good defense (Baltimore, which wasn’t great in Week 14).
De’Von Achane was 18th in market share but that was without Tyreek Hill for a lot of the game. Hill may miss Week 15 and the Jets are going to funnel targets to running backs anyway. Achane was limping after not getting out of bounds on third down when he should have been sprinting back to the formation with the clock running. So I’m worried he’s hurt again. If not, he should be good for 4-6 catches against the Jets.
Advertisement
Jonathan Mingo (23rd) is another guy on waivers but he’s more of a dynasty play given how bad Bryce Young is. Maybe the new coaching staff figures it out in the offseason with him. Maybe Young grows four inches. Seriously, the Panthers do not have a first-round pick and are unlikely to find a WR to supplant Mingo, the putative alpha for the club in 2024.
Breece Hall is a PPR beast now. Zach Wilson, whether he’s great like in Week 14 or the usual variety, gets the ball into the hands of playmakers and that’s Garrett Wilson and Hall, who had a combined 23 of 36 targets vs. Houston (64%). Week 15 opponent Miami had all kinds of trouble covering Tyjae Spears (11.1 yards per target on eight chances).
It was a bad week for tight ends with Pat Freiermuth leading the pack at 25th but playing in a non-functional offense (again). Close behind is Evan Engram, who is fifth in PPR scoring and just 28 points behind the leader (Travis Kelce).
Kyle Pitts was 77th in the model despite producing a TD. He’s the 13th TE in PPR scoring and ninth in targets. He hasn’t even missed a game. Pitts’ pace is 97 targets, which is just not going to cut it. It’s not like the Falcons are the Niners with so many mouths to feed. It’s a three-man offense, not four.
(Photo of Breece Hall: Al Bello/Getty Images)
ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57lGpqam5kZ3xzfJFsZmpqX2Z%2FcLLAp6uaq6lis7C705uYpaRdoq6zt8StZKygkaeybr7EqaarrF2ssqa3jGpraA%3D%3D